Predicting Ebola virus disease risk and the role of African bat birthing

Ebola virus disease (EVD) presents a threat to public health throughout equatorial Africa. The maintenance reservoirs of EVD in wild animal populations and the mechanism of spillover into humans (and apes) are poorly understood. Fruit bats may play a role in both, yet data on this remain sparse. IDReC researchers Reed Hranac, Jonathan Marshall and David Hayman, along with Eswatini colleague Ara Monadjem, developed niche models to examine how birthing cycles of African bats inform the spatio-temporal occurrence of EVD spillover. The model results improve spatio-temporal models of EVD spillover across mainland Africa and will be useful in predicting outbreaks in future.


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